— Dr HK Goswami
Prices of major food items have increased substantially over the last three years, and especially in the first half of 2008. According to the World Bank, approximately 100 million people might be thrown back into the ranks of the poor because of the price rise. There have been riots in a number of countries, and the World Bank has identified 33 as especially vulnerable. The poor are mainly vulnerable because they spend the largest portion of their income on food. For example, in Vietnam, about 75 per cent of income is spent on food, 70 per cent in Nigeria, and 50 per cent in Indonesia compared with 12 per cent in the United States of America (USA).According to the United Nations midyear (2008) update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects, the total number of food insecure people was nearly three billion, or about half the population of the world. In addition, around 18,000 children die every day as a direct or indirect consequence of inadequate nutrition, the UN report says.The factors affecting the global food situation are not far to seek. First, the land-use pattern had changed in the last few decades, with a greater proportion that was previously used for agriculture now being used for non-agricultural purposes. At the same time, a greater proportion of the land used for agricultural purposes was now devoted to non-food agriculture. While there has been a significant increase in grain production over the years, it had not necessarily translated into increased human grain consumption.Degradation of agricultural land is another important factor. Studying the data spread over 23 years (1981-2003), the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has concluded that 24 per cent of the global land area has degraded. This is over and above the extent of land that had already degraded. The situation has worsened since 1991 when the previous assessment was made. According to the FAO, in India, about 592,000 sq. kilometres of land have deteriorated – the 1991 assessment placed the figure at 450,000 sq. kilometres. Again, in 1980, 30 per cent of annual World Bank lending went to agricultural projects. This declined to 12 per cent in 2007. The overall proportion of all official development assistance going to agriculture is currently 4 per cent only.It is significant that the rising global population means not just more mouths to feed, but more sophisticated tastes to satisfy, as developing countries grow wealthier. And as demand for food increases around the world, supply capacity is struggling to keep up with these changing requirements – with potentially dire consequences for every nation.Already, in the developing world, strict restrictions on exports of foodstuff are obstructing a long-term solution, even as import barriers come tumbling down. Each country, is trying to keep domestic supplies high on the justifiable grounds of food security. As more countries implement export controls, global supply contracts even further, pushing prices up.The United States of America (USA) and international community should go on a war footing to engineer a new green revolution, particularly in and for Africa. Africa has not had technological productivity improvements in agriculture to the extent that Asia and Latin America have had. Investment in agricultural research provides the biggest bang for the outsider’s buck. According to the World Development Report 2008, investment in agricultural research has paid off handsomely delivering an average rate of return of 43 per cent in 700 projects evaluated in the developing countries.Today, an initiative is required in the public as well as private sectors. Private sector initiative alone will not be enough to generate research for African agriculture because of the limited purchasing power in Africa. If markets are small, returns are correspondingly small, reducing the incentives for private sector research. The international consortium of agricultural research under the aegis of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) needs to be revitalised and provided with extra funding.The recent crisis has also made it clear that food prices are now inextricably linked to fuel prices. Higher fuel prices add to the cost of agricultural production. More importantly, they increase the attractiveness of diverting land and agricultural products towards producing fuel. With grain used for fuel rather than for human consumption, food is now fodder for fuel. Any long term strategy to increase food supplies needs to include action to reducing dependence on fossil fuels.Meanwhile, in an emergency appeal on July 24, 2008, Oxfam warns that millions of people in Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Djibouti and Kenya are fast being pushed ‘towards severe hunger and destitution”. Poor families are struggling to buy staples, namely, maize and wheat, which have more than doubled in price over the past 12 months, Ethiopia is worst affected, with more than ten million people requiring assistance. About 4.6 million needs emergency food aid until the next harvest in November 2008. (The writer is former Principal, Mangaldoi College)
Prices of major food items have increased substantially over the last three years, and especially in the first half of 2008. According to the World Bank, approximately 100 million people might be thrown back into the ranks of the poor because of the price rise. There have been riots in a number of countries, and the World Bank has identified 33 as especially vulnerable. The poor are mainly vulnerable because they spend the largest portion of their income on food. For example, in Vietnam, about 75 per cent of income is spent on food, 70 per cent in Nigeria, and 50 per cent in Indonesia compared with 12 per cent in the United States of America (USA).According to the United Nations midyear (2008) update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects, the total number of food insecure people was nearly three billion, or about half the population of the world. In addition, around 18,000 children die every day as a direct or indirect consequence of inadequate nutrition, the UN report says.The factors affecting the global food situation are not far to seek. First, the land-use pattern had changed in the last few decades, with a greater proportion that was previously used for agriculture now being used for non-agricultural purposes. At the same time, a greater proportion of the land used for agricultural purposes was now devoted to non-food agriculture. While there has been a significant increase in grain production over the years, it had not necessarily translated into increased human grain consumption.Degradation of agricultural land is another important factor. Studying the data spread over 23 years (1981-2003), the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has concluded that 24 per cent of the global land area has degraded. This is over and above the extent of land that had already degraded. The situation has worsened since 1991 when the previous assessment was made. According to the FAO, in India, about 592,000 sq. kilometres of land have deteriorated – the 1991 assessment placed the figure at 450,000 sq. kilometres. Again, in 1980, 30 per cent of annual World Bank lending went to agricultural projects. This declined to 12 per cent in 2007. The overall proportion of all official development assistance going to agriculture is currently 4 per cent only.It is significant that the rising global population means not just more mouths to feed, but more sophisticated tastes to satisfy, as developing countries grow wealthier. And as demand for food increases around the world, supply capacity is struggling to keep up with these changing requirements – with potentially dire consequences for every nation.Already, in the developing world, strict restrictions on exports of foodstuff are obstructing a long-term solution, even as import barriers come tumbling down. Each country, is trying to keep domestic supplies high on the justifiable grounds of food security. As more countries implement export controls, global supply contracts even further, pushing prices up.The United States of America (USA) and international community should go on a war footing to engineer a new green revolution, particularly in and for Africa. Africa has not had technological productivity improvements in agriculture to the extent that Asia and Latin America have had. Investment in agricultural research provides the biggest bang for the outsider’s buck. According to the World Development Report 2008, investment in agricultural research has paid off handsomely delivering an average rate of return of 43 per cent in 700 projects evaluated in the developing countries.Today, an initiative is required in the public as well as private sectors. Private sector initiative alone will not be enough to generate research for African agriculture because of the limited purchasing power in Africa. If markets are small, returns are correspondingly small, reducing the incentives for private sector research. The international consortium of agricultural research under the aegis of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) needs to be revitalised and provided with extra funding.The recent crisis has also made it clear that food prices are now inextricably linked to fuel prices. Higher fuel prices add to the cost of agricultural production. More importantly, they increase the attractiveness of diverting land and agricultural products towards producing fuel. With grain used for fuel rather than for human consumption, food is now fodder for fuel. Any long term strategy to increase food supplies needs to include action to reducing dependence on fossil fuels.Meanwhile, in an emergency appeal on July 24, 2008, Oxfam warns that millions of people in Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Djibouti and Kenya are fast being pushed ‘towards severe hunger and destitution”. Poor families are struggling to buy staples, namely, maize and wheat, which have more than doubled in price over the past 12 months, Ethiopia is worst affected, with more than ten million people requiring assistance. About 4.6 million needs emergency food aid until the next harvest in November 2008. (The writer is former Principal, Mangaldoi College)
source: assam tribune editorial 03.09.08
