The break-up between the Left and the Congress, forcing the latter to join hands with the Samajwadi Party before facing a trust vote, has come as a shot in the arm for the Bahujan Samaj Party. Irrespective of the outcome, Mayawati will have reason to smile
The fates appear to be conspiring with each other to give Mayawati a larger-than-life national profile just when she needed it in the lead up to the next general election. One palpable outcome of the crisis engulfing the UPA Government after the withdrawal of support by the Left is the way it has catapulted the BSP supremo to political centrestage. Almost overnight, the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister has become the crucial lynchpin whose success or failure in influencing the trust vote in Parliament on July 22 can decide who gets to occupy the throne of Delhi.
This is a quantum leap forward for a leader who remained a regional phenomenon even after her spectacular victory in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly poll last year. It is true Ms Mayawati's potential as the most promising leader of the future had already started casting a long shadow on Indian politics. But until now she has had a marginal role to play in operative national politics dominated as it has been by the Congress, the BJP and the Left.
An extraordinary turn of events has ended this marginalisation in barely a week. Even as the Left seemed bamboozled at the defection of its staunch ally, the Samajwadi Party, to the Congress, and the BJP remained torn between gloating over the plight of the Left and worrying whether this gave the UPA a huge political leg-up, it was Ms Mayawati who changed the dynamics of the political situation with reports that the BSP had managed to poach some of the Samajwadi Party MPs who felt that they had better prospects by going with Behenji rather than Netaji (Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav). Although the number of confirmed defectors from the Samajwadi Party to the BSP is so far only three, the entire contour of the numbers game has been changed because nobody knows how many from the Samajwadi Party and perhaps even the Congress, the BSP supremo can ultimately wean away.
In a further boost to Ms Mayawati's stature, CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat himself drove down to her residence to publicly declare an alliance to topple the UPA Government. This has been followed by discussions on the phone by her with Telugu Dasam leader Chandrababu Naidu as well as Telengana Rashtra Samiti (TRS). Mr Naidu is expected to meet the BSP leader this weekend and she may even attend and address the UNPA meeting, an indication of her growing clout within the national Opposition.
For a leader who has so far had little do with regional parties with the BSP always determinedly staying away from any Third Front formation or national party-led coalition, this political interaction is of enormous significance. If the Opposition does manage to pull down the UPA Government in the trust vote, Ms Mayawati would soar into a different orbit and she would undoubtedly emerge as the main political victor of the battle while Mr Prakash Karat can at best claim a pyrrhic victory in the spat over the India-US nuclear deal. Indeed, a defeat on the floor of the Lok Sabha could trigger a major revolt within both the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, resulting in massive defections to the BSP not just in Uttar Pradesh but in many other States as well.
For Ms Mayawati, such a denouement of the Congress and the Samajwadi Party on the eve of the general election is precisely the kind of tail wind she requires to make a serious bid for power at the Centre. Her critical role in toppling the UPA regime cannot but have a huge impact on voters across the country in an election held within a few months at the end of the year. In many ways, this would largely overcome the BSP leader's handicap of being a dominant force so far only in Uttar Pradesh.
The survival of the Manmohan Singh Government in the trust vote would of course mean a temporary setback to Ms Mayawati. It could also bring in its wake considerable personal harassment in the shape of a vigorous pursuit by the CBI of the disproportionate assets case against her. There is little doubt that both the Congress and the Samajwadi Party would have a common interest in cornering her.
Yet, even if she loses her bid to oust the current regime, the central role being played by the BSP leader in the Opposition campaign to unseat the Manmohan Singh Government will be a major political asset to her. She has already managed to get support from virtually every single party in the Opposition, including the NDA, Left and the UNPA, on the fresh CBI bid to prosecute her. This would have been unimaginable even a few weeks ago.
The fact of the matter is whether she succeeds in toppling the Government or not this time, Ms Mayawati has already acquired the reputation of a major national player who holds the key to the future of Indian politics. Her new found stature with regional parties and the Left, along with her old contacts in the BJP and the RSS, provides her a huge number of options that will come in very useful after the next Lok Sabha election whenever it is held -- whether at the end of this year or in the early summer of 2009. It is highly doubtful whether the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh or the Congress in the country can change political logic at the grassroots level regardless of what happens in the trust vote.
Finally, one should not underestimate the reaction of Dalit voters across the country to television images of Ms Mayawati leading the current conflict against the UPA regime. Already an icon, particularly among young Dalits beyond Uttar Pradesh, the more the BSP leader steps out of her State to do battle, the more she and her party gains ground within her core constituency across India. Considering that Congress is heavily dependent on the Dalit vote in many States in the country, this spells trouble for that party in the next election even as it promises to make Ms Mayawati a potent nationwide force. source: http://www.dailypioneer.com
