Manmohan’s real test

Aditya Sinha
04 Oct 2008 03:30:00 AM IST
Ever since the July 22 trust vote, we have been hearing endlessly about how the prime minister, like The New Indian Express, is 100% steel and 0% gas; that it was his grit and unblinking determination that saw the deal through, and that it has emboldened him to things such as today’s news of prepoll sops and wagging an angry finger at the Orissa government over the anti-Christian violence. It is an absurd proposition. When the polls do arrive, and when Mulayam Singh Yadav —whose Samajwadi Party was the one to actually midwife the nuclear deal — inevitably double-crosses the Congress, you will then realize that, when the going gets tough, the tough get going to Sonia Gandhi.

This year, pre-poll season has coincided with the festival season. Shoppers are afraid of blasts, temple-goers are afraid of stampedes, and politicians are afraid of voters.

There’s a big question mark in the smokefilled air: with several state elections coming up next month, will the Lok Sabha elections be held with them, or soon after in December- January, or in February-March, or at the last possible moment, in April? Whatever the answer, the season of backroom confabulations is in full swing.

Believe it or not, our prime minister is still in favour of holding early elections.He believes he is India’s hero for forcing Sonia to push through the nuclear deal. He believes the nuclear deal will win his party all 544 Lok Sabha seats. This is why you occasionally see a story about those who feel an early election is the Congress party’s best bet, given the grim economic scenario that will envelope the world because of the US financial market crisis.

There is some truth in this. A US House of Representatives vote for the $700 billion dollar bailout of US financial markets will mean very little. The IMF may say that there is a full-blown recession, but the chances of a proper Depression are increasing. There is no money for corporate use in the Western world. There is going to be a run on banks any day now; foreign banks have already quietly started a run on US banks. A total systemic meltdown looms, and it will impact India. There is no escaping this.

To Sonia’s credit, however, she seems to realize she will lose heavily whenever the elections are finally held. Talk of her party getting less than 100 seats has become a commonplace nowadays. The Congress will lose the Delhi assembly elections; to prevent it from inflicting collateral damage on the parliamentary polls, Sonia has toyed with the idea of simultaneous assembly and parliamentary polls. But the driver of the timing of the Lok Sabha elections now seems to be the UPA allies, who want to delay jumping off the cliff till the last possible moment.

Till the end of August, the conventional wisdom was that the next Parliament was going to be hung, with all sorts of strange bedfellows coming together for a government that was likely to be unstable and unlikely to be full-termed. As a consequence, everyone has been wooing everyone else, as in one of those modern-day swayamvaras.

So the Left has been after AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa, as has the BJP’s Narendra Modi. She will join the third front only as its leader; the BJP are not averse to making her the NDA convenor. Chiranjeevi is another sought after politician as he will likely tip the scales in Andhra; and so, stateby- state, politicians are behaving like investment bankers on Wall Street, giving easy credit, and allowing massive price bubbles to build.

In late August, however, the Indian political sub-prime bubble burst when the violence against Christians began. The Kandhamal violence, sparked off by the murder of a VHP swami, was a continuation of last December’s violence; the Karnataka violence was sparked off, say Hindutva supporters, by derogatory literature spread by the particular evangelical group whose churches were attacked. To many of us, the violence appeared senseless. At the time we were more worried about the major cultural change in our lives: the Delhi police, rattled by successful terrorism, banned Ram Lila and Durga Puja after 10 pm. The anti- Christian attacks were nauseating.

Nonetheless, private surveys in north India indicate that after the recent aggression, the BJP has taken a big leap forward in its support among potential voters. Repulsive as it was, the violence has had its effect. The BJP was earlier thought to be in a shaky position in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh (it was assumed that the caste equations would overcome the anti-incumbency factor in Rajasthan, and Delhi had tired of Sheila Dixit); it is said to have vastly improved its chances. The truth will be known next month. But if this is the case, then it will have its impact on the next Parliament as well.

Thus, everyone is playing their cards close to their chests, including Mulayam Singh, whose party doesn’t seem to have benefited from the nuclear deal, if Amar Singh’s spluttering against the home minister are any indication. In UP, the Samajwadi Party will apparently give the Congress 11 parliamentary seats to contest; they include the eight seats currently held by the Congress.

Despite the pact, however, Mulayam has told friends that there is no guarantee that the Congress will win the three extra seats it is getting. He obviously realizes that in the wake of the recent blasts and retaliatory blasts, the Congress’s electoral losses are his gains. If the polls are merely a positioning for the real battle of government formation, then why should he concede anything to the Congress? All bets are off. When the Lok Sabha numbers start rolling in, Sonia is likely to find herself a very lonesome woman.

This brings us back to Manmohan Singh and the recent declarations of his Superman- like qualities. All this talk of fierce determination, unhesitant courage and unsentimental willpower is a lot of bunkum.

He doesn’t have the spine to face even the media through one-on-one interviews or press conferences (the on-board special aircraft interactions are with a captive, if not courtier-like, audience). The simple fact is that there is a direct correlation between his success as a prime minister and the number of Lok Sabha seats he will fetch for the Congress party. Then it will be for the whole world to see, how much steel Manmohan Singh actually is, and how much gas
editorchief@epmltd.com
About the author:
Aditya Sinha is the Editor-in-Chief of The New Indian Express and is based at Chennai
source: http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?artid=iqU2jla3QFM=&Title=Manmohan%E2%80%99s+real+test&SectionID=d16Fdk4iJhE=&MainSectionID=b7ziAYMenjw=&SectionName=aVlZZy44Xq0bJKAA84nwcg==&SEO=

Prime Minister’s Assam visit

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— Shibdas Bhattacharjee Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Sing’s recent visit to Assam was a significant one as it took place on the backdrop of on going controversy regarding the issue of illegal migrants that came to limelight after Gauhati High Court judge BK Sarma’s observation that Bangladeshis have already become “kingmakers” in Assam. Nor the Prime Minister gave any indication that the present UPA Government led by him gives any importance to the issue of ISI machinations in Assam as part of the design to establish a greater Islamic State of Bangladesh with Assam which the Gauhati High Court declared as the most serious threat before the indigenous people. In fact. after two decades since the Assam Accord was signed in 1985 neither the Central government nor the State government took any effective step to solve the problem of illegal Bangladeshi influx although the AGP came to power with a big bang deal with a promise with this problem. However, the State Government called upon the Prime Minister to take up the issue of deportation of Bangladeshi nationals detected in Assam with the Government of the neighbouring country and to provide “Punjab type” fencing along the international border to prevent fresh infiltration. In a memorandum to the Prime Minister, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi demanded that the Centre should give clearance for creating new river police battalions and take steps to amend the Citizenship Act for updating the National Register of Citizens (NRC). The agreement between India and Bangladesh includes a provision of 150-metre wide no-man-land belt. Following the 1974 land boundary agreement between India and Bangladesh, a stretch of five km was demarcated but strip maps have not been exchanged.The highlight of the Prime Minister’s visit was however; that Dr. Singh laid the foundation stone of Jorhat Medical College. The Prime Minister mentioned that the North East, with its pool of well-educated and progressive women, would produce large number of doctors and nurses, given the right opportunities. Dr Singh assured a group of 27 Majuli-based Satradhikars, that the Centre would not rest till the river island got the coveted status of a World Heritage Site. He reiterated that the Union Government would take all possible steps to protect Majuli and preserve the rich cultural heritage flourishing in the island.Prime Minister Singh also said that his Government would look into the demands of the IITs to exempt them from the purview of reservation in the selection process of their faculty members.So also, the Assam Government sought a series of incentives from the Centre to improve the education scenario in the State and called for amending the North East Industrial and Promotion Policy to provide incentives to the refineries. With a thrust on the education sector, the Prime Minister announced a package for Assam heavily loaded with proposals to create world-class educational institutions in the State. A world-class university, an institute of petroleum technology and a national design institute on the pattern of the National Institute of Design, Ahmedabad was a part of the Prime Minister’s package. The Centre will also assist the State Government in setting up a State skill development mission to encourage employment and skill development among the youths of Assam. The package also provides for setting up of a model school in every development block under the proposed Centrally-sponsored scheme for “Model Schools”. On the other hand, the Prime Minister also announced that the Centre would provide the Assam government all necessary assistance for setting up a centre of the Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Petroleum Technology in the State. The North East Industrial Investment Promotion Policy (NEIIPP) will also be suitably revised so as to attract investment to the region. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways will take up the Ohola-Sadiya Bridge which will be completed by 2013. The Numali-Gohpur bridge linking Jorhat to North Lakhimpur will also be taken up and completed by 201 3. In the package flood control measures and integrated development of Majuli will be accorded top priority and adequate funds will be provided for the purpose. A high-level monitoring group. with representatives of the Central and State governments and the Satradhikars will be set up to guide the process.An allocation of Rs 20 crore as additional Central assistance for Majuli will be made available to the Assam Government. The Central Government will provide additional assistance of Rs 250 crore for the integrated development of the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC). In so far as the other autonomous Councils of North Cachar Hills and Karbi Anglong are concerned, the State Government will prepare and submit a plan for the integrated infrastructure development, to be funded from the Rs 500-crore rupee corpus recently announced by Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram for infrastructure development in the North EastAll these promises made by the Prime Minister during his visit to Assam may apparently seemy to be very encouraging but this visit looked more like an election visit and keeping in view the upcoming general elections Dr Singh tried to project a very encouraging picture of Assam declaring some proposals to promote education and economic sectors of the State. But whether these proposals will get implemented or not is a very difficult question and the people of this State are aware of such earlier proposals and the ultimate outcome of those. No wonder that the Prime Minister was in the State to lay the foundation of Jorhat Medical College, to assure the people of the State of three more bridges over the Brahmaputra for better communication, and to tell the Satradhikars about the projects to develop Majuli. The most important question regarding the Prime Minister’s recent visit to Assam was certainly that he did not try to address or rather sidelined the core issues of the State, namely, the issue of illegal infiltration, increasing act of terrorist networks sponsored by Bangladesh and more importantly initiation of the dialogue process with the ULFA through the PCG. In fact the Prime Minister should have realised the fact that there practically exists no immigration law in Assam when it comes to illegal Bangladeshis and so he would have addressed the issue with utmost importance keeping aside the political compulsion of his party as far as the minority vote bank is concerned. So also it was expected that the Prime Minister would respect the sentiment of the indigenous people and try all possible options to avoid a similar situation of Assam agitation that is emerging in the State once again because of the issue of illegal infiltration. Considering all these Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s visit to Assam was a big fiasco. sourcE: assam tribune editorial

Left withdraws support to UPA

From Kalyan Barooah NEW DELHI, July 8 – The UPA Government at the Centre plunged into its worst crisis till date, with the Left Parties withdrawing support over the nuclear deal, leaving the Dr Manmohan Singh Government high and dry. However, the Congress Party put up a brave front and declared that there was no threat to the Government. The Congress Party’s confidence followed Samajvadi Party’s unanimous support to the UPA Government.An upset Left said the time has come to pull the rug. Not content, the Left is also planning to request President, Pratibha Devisingh Patil to ask the Prime Minister to seek a vote of trust in the Lok Sabha to prove his government majority, when they call on her here tomorrow to submit the letter of withdrawal of support.In a day fast paced with political developments that saw almost all big and small players confabulating on the fate of Dr Manmohan Singh Government, leaders quickly picked up their calculators, to see if the UPA combine had the numbers to survive.The Left parties were first to set the ball rolling when it met in the morning at its headquarters to draft the letter to External Affairs Minister, Pranab Mukherjee. They accused the ruling Congress-led coalition of refusing to provide the text to the members of the Committee on Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation and said the proposed meeting on July 10 would not serve any purpose in this context.It is critical for the country that the safeguards agreement was discussed with full transparency and not kept secret, said CPM general secretary, Prakash Karat.“Why is the Manmohan Singh Government keeping the draft of the IAEA agreement secret from the people,” the Left leader asked.The brief announcement by Karat-led the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi convene an emergency meeting of its senior leaders. In the evening, the all-powerful Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs (CCPA) was held, which was presided over by Mukherjee, in absence of the Prime Minister, who is away in Japan. The meeting was convened to fix a date for the special session of Parliament. Indication was that the government could go in for a trust vote on July 28.The Congress Party later described the Left action as most unfortunate. “When the entire nation is mourning those killed in the Kabul blast, the Left has chosen to make the announcement. It is most unfortunate. They think their prestige is more important than the nation’s prestige,” chairman of the AICC media department, Veerappa Moily said, reacting to the Left’s announcement.Yet, perhaps the biggest set back was suffered by SP, when at least six of its MPs gave broad hints they might oppose the opportunistic alliance with the Congress. Party chief, Mulayam Singh Yadav announced in the morning that all was well in the party after a meeting of the party Parliamentary Board, only to be contradicted by his colleague, Jai Prakash in Lucknow that a section of them opposed the move.He said each of its 39 MPs is solidly behind the Indo-US Nuclear deal. He requested the Left parties not to join the communal forces.Fishing in troubled waters, BJP president, Rajnath Singh attacked both the Left Parties and the UPA and demanded that a special session of Parliament should be convened immediately and the Prime Minister should seek a vote of confidence. He said the BJP leaders would approach the President of India to direct the present government to seek the trust vote. His statement came after an emergency meeting of the party’s office bearers, here this evening, to discuss the current political scenario and draft its future strategy. The day also saw a war of words between the Congress, Left and opposition parties. The Left held the Prime Minister responsible for precipitating the crisis, when he declared that Government would very soon approach the IAEA to move forward on the deal. The four parties- CPI (M), CPI, Forward Bloc and RSP lost no time in firming up plans to pull out of the coalition government, which it was supporting from outside.Karat also released the draft of the letter to Mukherjee. Since the UPA has refused to provide the text of the Safeguards Agreements to the members of the UPA-Left Committee, no purpose will be served by having a meeting.Further, the proposal for a meeting on the 10th is rendered meaningless since the Prime Minister, while travelling abroad, has chosen to announce that the government will be going to Board of Governors of the IAEA “very soon”.Previously, the Left parties had decided that if the government goes to the IAEA Board of Governors, they will withdraw support, the letter said.Meanwhile, allies rushed to extend support, ruling out any threat to the survival of the UPA government. RJD president Lalu Prasad said the alliance has majority support and it will be proved in Parliament. Later, Union Agriculture Minister and NCP president Sharad Pawar also said that the government is stable. source: assam tribune

Beleaguered UPA govt

Beleaguered UPA govt

Tile UPA Government led by Dr Manmohan Singh is heading for an uncertain future with stalemate on the Indo-US nuclear deal due to unrelenting opposition to the deal by the Left parties on one hand and the Prime Minister’s keen desire to complete its business with the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) for country’s credibility, soaring thirteen year high inflation of 11.05 per cent and withdrawal of support to the UPA government by Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party on the other. Dr Manmohan Singh has expressed his desire to quit if he could not carry the UPA alliance with him to negotiate the India-Specific safeguard with the IAEA,a necessary step to conclude the Indo-US nuclear deal. The Left parties have threatened to withdraw support to the Government in case the Government go ahead with negotiation with the IAEA in spite of its opposition to the move. The Left parties’ objection to the Indo-US nuclear deal was mainly on the ground that such a deal would lead to strategic partnership between India and US and tilt India’s foreign policy towards US whereas the UPA Government and the top nuclear scientists feel that Indo-US nuclear deal was essential for ending India’s nuclear isolation and meet India’s future requirement of energy through nuclear power plants. Even China and Russia have entered into such 123 agreements. The Left parties have made it known that their stand is non-negotiable and they would withdraw support if the UPA Government proceeds with IAEA negotiation.Desperate attempts by the UPA allies like the NCP,RJD,DMK to break the impasse and save the UPA Government from falling, are going on in New Delhi. Mayawati’s withdrawal of support would not reduce the UPA alliance to a minority at present. The Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav is inching closer to the Congress and likely to fill the gap with 39 MPs.Except the BJP,no other political party would like to have election sooner than scheduled. The CPI(M) general secretary,Prakash Karat has met the DMK leader M.Karunanidhi and requested him to mediate and resolve the impasse.The veteran politician did not want any disruption in the unity among UPA allies that would help communal forces. All the allies of the UPA are against election when the inflation has crossed two digits and likely to move up further prices of essential commodities beyond the reach of common people. They are pressing Sonia Gandhi to save the situation by advising the Prime Minister to go slow with the IAEA.The crucial UPA-Left coordination meeting to be held today will show whether reconciliation of the irreconcilable has taken place or the country goes to early polls. Source: assam tribune editorial