Amulya Ganguli
As the elections draw near, there have been a few honest admissions by politicians about their party’s chances. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Sushma Swaraj, for instance, has acknowledged that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by her party, will not get a majority. She, however, believes that it will be able to secure the support of a few allies to cross the crucial half-way point of 272 MPs.
Like her, Prakash Karat of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) has conceded that the so-called Third Front favoured by the Left may have to depend on the Congress to form a government. His choice of the Congress is surprising considering that he spearheaded a bitter campaign against the Manmohan Singh government on the India-US nuclear deal and tried to topple it in Parliament by lining up with the BJP. But, as is known, there are no permanent friends or foes in politics (or diplomacy); only permanent interests.
Since Karat has chosen the Congress as a possible ally, it will not be unreasonable to expect the latter to bank on Left support to form a government, as Railway Minister Lalu Prasad of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) expects. The latter possibility is more feasible considering that the comrades were with the Congress for nearly four years of its present term.
However, what such a move will mean is that the Front will splinter, as it also will if it wants to bank on the Congress to come to power. The reason is the presence in the combination of two mercurial women — Mayawati and Jayalalitha. While the latter may not be unwilling to either ask for Congress support or call upon the Front to back the Congress, considering that she had looked for a partnership with the Congress not long ago, it is Mayawati who will be the stumbling block. The reason is that while the Congress will not help the Third Front to install Mayawati as Prime Minister, she, on her part, will veto any move by the Front to help the Congress to form a government.
If the Front has the problem of pushy members — Mayawati, Jayalalitha and Pawar — the BJP carries the burden of restive and inconsequential partners. Two of its allies, the BJD in Orissa and the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, have drifted away while another, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) in Bihar, has indicated that it will decide on staying on in the NDA after the elections.
Now, the BJP has to fall back on its old mainstay of minority-baiting, but this tactic cannot but alienate the NDA’s secular components like the JD-U. Since Varun Gandhi has also attacked the Sikhs, apart from the Muslims, another of the BJP’s partners, the Akali Dal in Punjab, cannot be too pleased with the turn of events.
The uneasiness of these allies cannot be compensated by the BJP’s latest acquisitions - the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in Uttar Pradesh, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Haryana and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in Assam. All three are minor parties with localized influence — the RLD in western Uttar Pradesh and the INLD in tiny Haryana. Of them, the AGP has even said that it is not a part of the NDA.
While the Third Front looks unwieldy and the BJP uncertain, the Congress has shot itself in the foot by its arrogance. By refusing to enter into a national-level alliance with its UPA partners, it made them hit back at Big Brother in their strongholds in the Hindi heartland.
Yet, the Congress-led UPA seems somewhat better placed than the other two formations.
(The writer is a political analyst) (IANS)
As the elections draw near, there have been a few honest admissions by politicians about their party’s chances. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Sushma Swaraj, for instance, has acknowledged that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by her party, will not get a majority. She, however, believes that it will be able to secure the support of a few allies to cross the crucial half-way point of 272 MPs.
Like her, Prakash Karat of the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) has conceded that the so-called Third Front favoured by the Left may have to depend on the Congress to form a government. His choice of the Congress is surprising considering that he spearheaded a bitter campaign against the Manmohan Singh government on the India-US nuclear deal and tried to topple it in Parliament by lining up with the BJP. But, as is known, there are no permanent friends or foes in politics (or diplomacy); only permanent interests.
Since Karat has chosen the Congress as a possible ally, it will not be unreasonable to expect the latter to bank on Left support to form a government, as Railway Minister Lalu Prasad of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) expects. The latter possibility is more feasible considering that the comrades were with the Congress for nearly four years of its present term.
However, what such a move will mean is that the Front will splinter, as it also will if it wants to bank on the Congress to come to power. The reason is the presence in the combination of two mercurial women — Mayawati and Jayalalitha. While the latter may not be unwilling to either ask for Congress support or call upon the Front to back the Congress, considering that she had looked for a partnership with the Congress not long ago, it is Mayawati who will be the stumbling block. The reason is that while the Congress will not help the Third Front to install Mayawati as Prime Minister, she, on her part, will veto any move by the Front to help the Congress to form a government.
If the Front has the problem of pushy members — Mayawati, Jayalalitha and Pawar — the BJP carries the burden of restive and inconsequential partners. Two of its allies, the BJD in Orissa and the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, have drifted away while another, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) in Bihar, has indicated that it will decide on staying on in the NDA after the elections.
Now, the BJP has to fall back on its old mainstay of minority-baiting, but this tactic cannot but alienate the NDA’s secular components like the JD-U. Since Varun Gandhi has also attacked the Sikhs, apart from the Muslims, another of the BJP’s partners, the Akali Dal in Punjab, cannot be too pleased with the turn of events.
The uneasiness of these allies cannot be compensated by the BJP’s latest acquisitions - the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in Uttar Pradesh, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Haryana and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in Assam. All three are minor parties with localized influence — the RLD in western Uttar Pradesh and the INLD in tiny Haryana. Of them, the AGP has even said that it is not a part of the NDA.
While the Third Front looks unwieldy and the BJP uncertain, the Congress has shot itself in the foot by its arrogance. By refusing to enter into a national-level alliance with its UPA partners, it made them hit back at Big Brother in their strongholds in the Hindi heartland.
Yet, the Congress-led UPA seems somewhat better placed than the other two formations.
(The writer is a political analyst) (IANS)
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