Just as Naveen Patnaik's departure was a big jolt to the BJP, the rupture between the Congress on the one hand and the RJD-LJP on the other in Bihar is a similar blow to the Congress. If it is still somewhat less upsetting for the latter, the reason is that notwithstanding the break in ties, the RJD and the LJP have decided to remain in the UPA. In all likelihood, therefore, if the UPA emerges as the largest single combination in the next Lok Sabha, it may well be back to square one for the three parties.
However, there is a difference. It is the change in the Congress's attitude over the last five years. When Sonia Gandhi literally walked the extra mile in 2004 to stitch up the alliance, the Congress did not really expect to win. Its success at the time was as much of a surprise for it as to the BJP. Since then, and especially in the last few months, the Congress has become far more confident than it ever was in the recent past.
The reason is that it believes that the BJP has lost ground because of several factors - the failure of its temple and terror planks, the age factor of its prime ministerial candidate, Patnaik's exit, the Rajnath Singh-Arun Jaitley spat and, now, Varun Gandhi's anti-Muslim diatribe.
The Congress, on the other hand, has been able to reach an agreement with the NCP in Maharashtra despite P.A. Sangma's unhappiness over the loss of his party's Meghalaya government, and also with the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. The Congress may not have been able to agree with the Samajwadi Party on seat-sharing in U.P., but, like the RJD and the LJP, the Samajwadi Party is likely to remain a part of the UPA.
The Congress, on the other hand, has been able to reach an agreement with the NCP in Maharashtra despite P.A. Sangma's unhappiness over the loss of his party's Meghalaya government, and also with the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. The Congress may not have been able to agree with the Samajwadi Party on seat-sharing in U.P., but, like the RJD and the LJP, the Samajwadi Party is likely to remain a part of the UPA.
It is the Congress's growing self-assurance, however, which has led to the clash with the RJD and the LJP. Since the Congress probably did not expect Lalu Yadav to treat it so shabbily by offering it only three seats out of the 40 that the party has gone overboard to field candidates in as many as 37 constituencies. By all accounts, this has been something of an overreaction since not even the most optimistic of the Congress's supporters will believe that the party has recovered its lost ground to such an extent in Bihar. It is possible that had there been a greater communication between the two groups, there would have a more realistic appreciation of their respective strengths. The Congress probably believes that the RJD is no longer as influential as before, especially because of the reasonably creditable performance of the Nitish Kumar government. The RJD's number of seats, for instance, has dropped from 124 in undivided Bihar in the year 2000 to 114 assembly segments in the 2004 parliamentary polls and then to 75 in 2005.
The Congress has been way behind, of course, winning 23 seats in undivided Bihar in 2000, then 17 assembly constituencies in 2004 and finally an even lower 10 in 2005. All the other parties, including the LJP with 29 seats in 2005, are ahead of it. Lalu Yadav had a point, therefore, when he said that Sonia Gandhi had been misled by her "munshis" and others to demand a greater number of seats.
He may be also right in believing that the Congress has made its claims with the 2014 elections in mind rather than the present one. The party seemingly wants to water its roots now in preparation for the next battle five years later. The Railway Minister is perhaps also banking on the latent tension between the Janata Dal (United) and the BJP to recover his own lost ground.
The Congress has been way behind, of course, winning 23 seats in undivided Bihar in 2000, then 17 assembly constituencies in 2004 and finally an even lower 10 in 2005. All the other parties, including the LJP with 29 seats in 2005, are ahead of it. Lalu Yadav had a point, therefore, when he said that Sonia Gandhi had been misled by her "munshis" and others to demand a greater number of seats.
Whatever the calculations, neither side can regard itself to be so well placed as to treat its allies with such little deference. Just as the Congress was justified in rejecting the RJD-LJP's insulting offer of three seats, it should have also fixed a more realistic target for itself. Besides, as the leader of the ruling alliance at the centre, it has a greater responsibility to ensure its continuity. The need for keeping the flock together is all the greater at a time when the Third Front has had an accretion of strength by the induction of Naveen Patnaik and the possibility of the AIADMK-PMK combination contributing a fair number of seats to the kitty at the DMK's expense. The front's inner contradictions may not allow it to become a cohesive unit, but the UPA itself should try its best to avoid its own internal conflicts.
It is in this respect that the Congress has been somewhat over-ambitious. In addition, where Bihar is concerned, it should have remembered that Lalu Yadav has been a steadfast friend from before 2004, who did his best to deflect all the criticism about Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin. Even now, the RJD chief has said that he continues to stand like a "rock" behind Sonia Gandhi.
Arguably, the Congress may have miffed because the blow came from someone like Lalu Yadav whom it had trusted. But sufficient effort was not made by either side to heal the breach. If the UPA comes to grief, it is the failure to reach an understanding in Bihar which will be seen as a one of the main reasons. THE SHILLONG TIMES
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