Break-up Imminent?

A report by the third largest US newspaper chain, McClatchy Newspapers, says that fear among US officials and experts as to Pakistan’s eventual disintegration into fiefdoms controlled by Islamist warlords and terror groups is increasing by the day. According to the report, while Pakistan’s fragmentation into warlord-run fiefdoms will have grave implications for the security of its nuclear weaponry, for the US-led effort to manage Afghanistan, and for the security of India as well as the nearby oil-rich Persian Gulf and Central Asia and the US itself and its allies, what adds to the boiling cauldron is the dichotomy of interests and agendas between the Pakistan Army and the civilian leadership. Even the Af-Pak strategy of President Barack Obama, however based on pragmatism and insight into the geo-strategic dynamics of the region, is confronted by the Pakistan Army’s reluctance to end its obsession with Kashmir and concentrate on decimating the Taliban-Al Qaeda formation in the rugged terrains of the North West Frontier Province, from where the jihadis are rapidly ramifying and consolidating in urban areas too, as evident, for instance, from attacks in Lahore in recent times. As McClatchy cited an expert saying that ‘‘if you look out 10 years, I think the government (in Pakistan) will be overrun by Islamic militants’’, what is most perturbing for us is the possibility of that country’s nuclear arsenal and command structure being hijacked by Islamist groups to target India to grab the whole of the Kashmir Valley and other areas too, such as for the task of annexing Asom to Bangladesh. The threat is very, very real. But is India prepared to avert the cataclysm in the making? THE SENTINEL