— HN DasA virtual hue and cry was raised by the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar when he found that Government of India’s (GOI) estimate of people below the poverty line (BPL) in his state did not match Bihar Government’s assessment. He went to New Delhi and in a press conference in the capital said that “there should be a relook at the Below Poverty Line assessment of the Planning Commission on the basis of which food grains allocation is done for the state. “The question of poverty is so important for the country that the number of people who are poor needs to be redefined. In Bihar, the Central Government assessment shows 60 to 65 lakh poor, whereas our surveys show that 1.40 crore people are below the poverty line. Therefore, our food grain allocation should be revised” (The Hindu, January 10, 2008)Actually, Bihar’s BPL population was shown as 32.5 per cent in 2004-05 in the latest and the 61st round of the National Sample Survey compared to 42.6 per cent in 1999-2000. There was a 10.1 per centile points fall. In Assam during the same period, BPL population has been shown to have come down by as much as 21 per centile points from 36.1 per cent in 1999-2000 to 15 per cent in 2004-2005. It really is a surprise because this 21 percentile point fall in Assam was against a small reduction of 4.3 percentile points in BPL population of the country as a whole (from 26.1 per cent in 1999-2000 to 21.8 per cent in 2004-05). If we believe these figures then Assam has become richer than Maharastra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, West Bengal and Pudduchery.When I saw the position, as revealed by the national media, I was not only surprised but also worried. My worry increased further when I found that neither the Government of Assam (GOA) nor the local media seemed to notice this development for a long time. As a concerned citizen I then wrote a letter to the Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi on July 10, 2007. As requested by several other concerned citizens I am publishing that letter in full :“I was quite intrigued by a national media report, which appeared three and a half months ago, and which, inter alia, stated that Assam’s below poverty line (BPL) population has fallen to 15 per cent in 2004-05 compared to 36.1 per cent in 1999-2000 (i.e. by 21.1 percentile points) on the basis of mixed recall period (MRP) and to 19.7 per cent in 2004-05 compared to 40.9 per cent in 1993-94 (i.e. by 21.2 percentile points) on the basis of uniform recall period (URP). Since the all India BPL figure has fallen only by 4.3 per cent on the basis of MRP and only by 8.5 per cent on the basis of URP during the respective periods I felt that there must have been either a miraculous spell of economic development in Assam during the impugned periods or that there has been some serious mistake in calculating the figures.“Consumer expenditure figures are estimated by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) based on which BPL figures are prepared by the Planning Commission. On July 5, 2007 I happened to meet Dr. PK Roy, Director General, NSSO. He seemed surprised when I told him about the Assam figures, which had emerged out of his Report on the “Level and Pattern of Consumer Expenditure, 2004-05”. I then met the distinguished economist Dr Pranab Sen, Secretary to the Government of India, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, who supervises NSSO. He agreed with me that it was difficult to comprehend the Assam figures. He gave me the tables containing the comparative figures of all other states. I was astonished to find that the poverty ratio in Assam has become less than in the advanced states such as Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Pudduchery. I then met Dr A Virmani of the Planning Commission. He also looked surprised. But he said that his own Perspective Planning Division had prepared the BPL figures based on NSSO’s consumer expenditure figures. He gave me a copy of the relevant Press Note dated March 21, 2007 issued by the Press Information Bureau from which the national media had picked up the figures.“I have not seen any response or reaction expressed by the Government of Assam on this peculiar phenomenon. The local media also seems to have missed this important piece of news during the past three and a half months.“However, both the Planning Commission and the Finance Commissions adopt the BPL figures as one of the criteria for allocation of Central funds to the states. Different Ministries also follow the same practice. Assam, therefore, might lose on this account in the future. As a responsible citizen I thought I should keep the Chief Minister apprised about my concerns and apprehensions.”It appears that the Chief Minister asked for immediate action on the subject. But a response was further delayed by another four months so that a matter made public by the Government of India on March 21,2007 was responded to by the Government of Assam only in November, 2007.Meanwhile, I also wrote to the Union Minister for Development of North Eastern Region, Mani Shankar Aiyer. My letter dated August 21,2007 is reproduced below : “According to media report you have stated in the Rajya Sabha on 16.08.07 that “the pace of development in the north eastern region has been slow in comparison to other states of the country”. All other reports in the past on this subject came to the same conclusion.“However, according to the latest Planning Commission estimate of the population below poverty line (BPL), based on the 61st round of the National Sample Survey, there has been a tremendous (almost miraculous) improvement in the situation in the North Eastern Region during the 5 years between 1999-2000 and 2004-05. I am quoting the relevant figures in the enclosed statement. I am also enclosing a photocopy of the letter I had written to the Chief Minister of Assam in this connection. This is for favour of your perusal.”My objective in publishing these two letters is to urge the bureaucracy to be proactive and to assist the political executive to take effective measures to correct such situations. It should be ensured that there is no loss to the NE states on account of NSSO’s serious mistakes and defaults. Our local media is normally very vocal and prolific in their coverage. How they missed such an important news is a mystery.(The writer was Chief Secretary, Assam, during 1990-95.)
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